It is almost 8 years to the day that I made some predictions on the future of cameras and photography.
When I reviewed them in 2015, I rated my reviews and in truth my scoring was mixed, however 7 years have passed, so I thought it would be worth revisiting those predictions
So was I dead wrong, or was a just ahead of my time? do my predictive powers hold up or am I just another wannabe prophet?
To find out read on...
2014 Predictions
1. Mirror-less cameras will continue to make in-roads into the
professional market, taking market share from DSLR's, even at the top
end.
When I made this prediction in 2014, the first high-end full frame mirrorless cameras, such as the Sony A7R II, were just coming on the market,
Reading the comments on forums like dpreview, there were many who doubted that such cameras could make in-roads into the established DSLR manufacturers. It was said that focusing was not good enough, battery life was poor and there was a lack of lens choice. Also, electronic viewfinders were criticized when compared to optical viewfinders on SLR's that they had poor resolution and had lags when tracking and when the camera fired, the EVF would black out.
8 years on, and it is clear that mirrorless has now taken over from DSLRs. Autofocus, for a long time the Achilles heel of mirrorless cameras, has matched or even surpassed DSLR models, and have added features such as eye and animal detect maening even in areas like sport and wildlife where DSLR's reinged supreme, mirrorless cameras are now common.
The EVF's have increased resolution to the point that they are the equal optical viewfinders, with a high refresh rate meaning black out and lag are virtually eliminated They also have the benefit of the extra viewfinder information that they contain and the ability for you to see what the actual photo will look like before you take the image
Even lenses are not a problem. Sony filled out their range with a combination of in-house manufacture and encouraging third party support, while Canon and Nikon provided adapters to allow mirrorless cameras to use legacy glass,
In 2015, I gave myself 8/10, but today it is not hard to argue that I deserve
10/10
2. Nikon and Canon will produce their 1st full frame mirror-less
cameras. Nikon's especially will not gain much market share due to
commercially driven design compromises.
In 2015, it was felt that Nikon and Canon were still very much betting their future on DSLR's. This in turn gave Sony a free run to compete with big 2 cameras manufactures by developing their range of full frame mirrorless cameras.
For a long time Nikon and Canon were in denial, however the writing was on the wall, and Nikon eventually produced its first full frame mirrorless body in 2018, and Canon following soon after.
Since then, it is clear both manufacturers see the future as mirrorless, and the future of any more DSLR development severely in doubt.
To credit Nikon, its 1st foray into mirrorless was very good and managed to stem the market share loss to Sony. However, unlike Sony and Canon, Nikon relies heavily on camera sales, and it does not have deep pockets. Developing and maintaining both the mirrorless and DSLR lines must have been expensive for Nikon. Also, due to the delay to entering the market means that Sony are now equal in terms of market share in the high-end areas, and Sony continues to be aggressive in its development strategy
Nikon on the other hand has history and intense customer loyalty to fall back on, but it remains to be seen whether Nikon can survive in this new world where it cannot share out the market equally with Canon
In 2015, I gave myself a dismal 0/10, but now...
3. There will not be much increase in maximum pixel counts in cameras. Instead, efforts will be made to increase the sensitivity of existing
sensors by going full frame with fewer pixels on mid-range cameras
One of the certainties of the 2015 was that the camera megapixel war would continue unabated. At the time, 20MP was common, but cameras with 40MPwere coming onto the market.
Today, high MP is not seen as important. The sweet spot of APC is still around 20MP, but Sony full frame have gone as high as 60 Mpixels on its latest and greatest, which is not that much more than the Sony A7R 45 Mpixels of 2018. If you want 100 MPixel you will need to invest in high end, medium format cameras, which at best are niche products
This slowing of megapixel growth has been driven by 3 factors.
Firstly, is the law of diminishing return. The increased in resolution between 45 Mpixel camera and a 60 Mpixel camera is actually quite small, and at the same time it increases costs, the dependency on lens design, and camera stabilization etc. You will not see much benefit in this sort of increases of sensor pixel count while at the same time it increases the demand on storage and post-processing effort
Secondly, is the rise in computational photography. This has negated some of the resolution benefits of higher resolution sensors. Many cameras offer some manner of pixel shift capability, where the camera takes 4 images and combines them to quadruple the resolution. While the implementation in many cases is less than optimal, it is often an easier and cheaper way to get the increased resolution in those rare occasions when it is actually needed. Computation photography will no doubt improve removing, much of the need for higher resolution sensors
Finally, is the rise in video. Almost all cameras now promote their video capabilities as much as their photographic ones. It used to be 4K photography was the norm, but now high-end cameras are pushing 8K recording. However, video performance is dependent on how fast you can read from the sensor. Recording 120 frames at 8K means you need to shift the data out very fast. Even more important, the faster you read the sensor, the fewer effects like rolling shutter you get. However, the more pixels you have, the slower the read-out gets, meaning cameras have to resort to cropping the sensor.
Instead of increased pixels, we have seen improvements in both the readout speed and sensitivity of the sensor by changes in the sensor architecture, such as back side illumination chips that allow more light to be captured and read more quickly. These in turn have produced cameras which are almost ISO invariant in that even at high sensitivity they are creating little or no noise in the images.
In 2015, I gave myself 1/10, today....
Score 8/10
4. Sony will continue to indicate their continued support of the
Alpha series DSLR's, while doing bugger all to actually back up the
claim by filling out the product range with a model between the A57 and
A77II. In the meantime, they will produce 2 new mirrorless cameras, the
A7S II and the A7R II.
To be honest, this was a no-brainer. The A-Series DSLR was based on technology bought when Sony took over Minolta which introduced a split screen that part of the light went to the sensor and part to the EVF. It allowed Sony to create a camera with some of the capabilities of a mirrorless DSLR, but with the cost of reduced light to the sensor. It was clear however that it was a stop gap solution and the future was pure mirrorless as long as the technology challenges could be worked out.
The complication was that although the writing was on the wall, for a long time Sony denied that the line was dead. Clearly now it was a commercial decision to ensure return of investment from the lens. The last camera, the Sony A99 II being brought out on Sept 2016, even then Sony refused to confirm the death of the line leaving many Sony DSLT users to hoping for an upgrade and production continued until 2020 when Sony was finally admitted it would be killing off the line and concentrating on their pure mirrorless cameras.
You would have thought that the cameras would now be junk, but a Sony A99 II will still set you back £2500 on fleabay, so obviously there is still some love out there, and of course a lot of legacy glass.
Score at the time was 6/10, but now
Score 10/10
5. High-end cameras to use more smartphone technology in their OS.
Not only the ability to upload photos via mobile networks, but also
download apps to add new functionality to the camera. Also, it would be
great if cameras opened up their SDK, so it allowed programming of new
functionality. Why limit yourself to 5 stop HDR where you could expand
your camera to do 10 stops and focus stacking at the same time.
Preferably using some sort of graphical programming environment. (This was not mine originally but borrowed from Mark Abeln, but was too good not to include)
Today, the majority of photography is taken on mobile phones. Mobile phone cameras have grown from a toy to a serious photographic tool that has killed the small digital camera market.
To overcome the inherent disadvantages of lens and sensor of mobile phone cameras, phone designers have added computational photography techniques such as combining multiple images to reduce noise and increase dynamic range.
Not only that, but on a mobile you can add apps to customize the phones, process your images on the device, update your images to social media together with location info. They even allow you to make phone calls :)
It seemed obvious at the time that camera manufacturers would have to embrace some of these new technologies and build them into the cameras. However, that has singularly failed to happen, with camera OS showing little change to the one in 2015
I recently reviewed a Samsung Galaxy Camera I was given. Despite being almost 10 years old, I was blown away of how modern it felt, with a huge rear screen, mobile connectivity and apps. This should of been the future of all cameras, but for some reason design and innovation has stalled in camera design. I always think that it is a sign that designers have run out of ides where they start going down the retro route like the Nikon fc.
Sony did try having a app store for a while, but basically blew it by making it a closed shop. However the argument to have the ability to extend your camera or customise its functionality is a powerful one, and it seems only the conservative elements in camera design are stalling it happening.
For example on my camera I can set ISO limits, but they are crude. What I want is the ability to set a ISO limit, a speed limit and a aperture limit. I want them to cut in at certain light levels, so I can say ISO 100, speed 1/100 Aperture F8 is the limit, but when it gets darker it can go to ISO 400 etc.
The other big area of mobile technology is connectivity. For example not many cameras provide a headphone jack, because the are large ane unweildy. Why then do cameras not provide bluetooth audio? It seems a no brainer, but no camera on the market offers it
While some connectivity to the cloud is offered, cameras are still a closed area with limited outside access and connectivity. They also provide little customisation both in the camear operation and adding extra functionality via a app store
Any way my score the was 1 out of 10, today dissappointingly it is still
1 out of 10
Conclusion
So 7 years on, it seems the majority of my predictions have been borne out. So waht will happen in the next 7 years?
Thsi will be the subjectb of another blog when I have looked in my crystal balls and consulted my tarot cards..
coming soon.
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